Lies, Damned Lies, and Statistics: A Researcher’s Perspective
One of the functions of the Research & Planning Department is to verify and source various facts and data points.
Photo by idrewuk
One “fact” that we get asked to source on a regular basis is that third grade reading scores are used in the state of (Virginia, California, Indiana—fill in the blank) to project how many prison beds will be needed in the future. What a compelling statement! It just begs to be repeated.
Unfortunately (or perhaps fortunately), it isn’t true.
It has an impressive pedigree: Colin Powell has cited it, as has Hillary Clinton. The Washington Post and New York Times have both published opinion columns that reference it. A quick Google search of “third grade reading” and “prison beds” came up with 36,400 matches (and fewer than 4,000 matches if you add the word “bogus”).
We have contacted officials in both California and Virginia (the two most frequently cited states) and have come up empty. We have searched the web and scoured research articles. Plenty of references to the alleged fact, but not a single one of the purported sources pans out.
So it was with no small amount of relief that not too very long ago I ran across this article in the Washington Post debunking the claim.
If the Washington Post with its myriad resources, national and international, couldn’t track down a reliable source, I’m inclined to believe it doesn’t exist. If anyone out there knows otherwise, please let me (and the Washington Post) know.
I wonder though, even if it is true, would they admit it? Formalize it in the books? You see, I think it makes sense. Yeah, it is politically incorrect (could be morally wrong), but doesn’t it makes sense though? If a kid falls behind by 3rd grade, and never recovers, by the time they hit high school, they are so far behind they tend to feel too frustrated and give up. I see it all the time. And in this day and age, if/when you give up at or below the high school level, aren’t you setting yourself up for failure? And if society has no need for you (as it surely doesn’t and will not), aren’t you going to try all sorts of (illegal) ways to survive? And bang, eventually where do you end up?
So as wrong as it may be, I think it’s sound planning decision to keep an eye on 3rd grade reading levels when you are thinking about how much prison beds you will need in the future.
But then again what civilized society wants to be comfortable with the idea that instead of helping our kids today our government is planning for their failure tomorrow? Because sound decision or not, that would be incompetent and morally deplorable.