The new unemployment numbers took a lot of people, including me, by surprise: Unemployment rose from 9.8% in September to 10.2% in October. It isn’t the increase that surprised me—all the economists have been saying the unemployment rate is going to continue its climb, even though the recession itself is likely over. Rather, it was the size of the increase. I had just finished my October State of the Economy the previous week, which included unemployment projections of 10% by December and a peak of 10.2% in February.

So I wonder if it’s peaking early, or if it’s going to peak a lot higher than has been forecast. Some of the more pessimistic economists (okay, one economist in this Wall Street Journal survey) are predicting 11% in June. Ten percent don’t think the unemployment rate will peak until the second half of 2010. Or later.

Unemployment has increased for virtually all demographic groups, but not all demographic groups are equally affected. Wondering who’s getting hit the hardest? Young people for sure. People of color more than whites. Men more than women. Want to know where you fit in the mix? Check out this interactive graphic developed by the New York Times—you can get unemployment rates by race, sex, age, and educational level—or any variation thereof. (I spent an embarrassing amount of time playing with the numbers: It’s grim and fascinating at the same time.)

There are also broader measures of unemployment (I’ve talked about this before). So if you include discouraged workers the unemployment rate goes up to 10.7%. And if you add in marginally attached and involuntary part-time workers, it goes up to 17.5%. That’s getting uncomfortably close to 1 in 5 workers.

Hunker down. The bumpy ride isn’t over yet….

This entry was posted on Wednesday, November 11th, 2009 at 1:40 pm and is filed under Economics, Financial Stability, Statistical Notes. You can follow any responses to this entry through the RSS 2.0 feed. You can leave a response, or trackback from your own site.