We’ve just posted the January edition of State of the Economy. This is a monthly publication that pulls together key economic developments both locally and nationally. It also includes the most recent data available about referrals made by United Way 2-1-1.

A few highlights from our most recent issue:

• Both local and national unemployment rates remained steady in January at 10% (U.S.) and 7.4% (MN) respectively.
• Lender-mediated home sales averaged $124,000 in the Twin Cities in 2009 compared to $204,000 for traditional home sales.
• The Twin Cities’ housing inventory is down 22% from a year ago.
• Teenagers are experiencing the highest unemployment rates nationally (27%) while women and Asians are experiencing some of the lowest rates (8%).
• Weekly wages declined 1.6% in 2009 when inflation is factored in.
• TCF is ending its “Totally Free Checking” program. More than 1,000,000 accounts that were previously free will be charged a monthly maintenance fee beginning early this year.
• Target Corp. is opening fewer than 10 new stores this year, but is renovating 340 stores already in operation.
• UnitedHealth Group reported fourth quarter profits up 30% and profits for the year up 28%.
• United Way 2-1-1 made nearly 175,000 referrals for basic needs in 2009. More than one-third of these were for either emergency food or emergency shelter.

For more news on the local and national economy, read the full report (including graphics!) here. 

What is the state of your economy? What one issue has had the most impact on you, your family, or your work in the past year? What do you think the State of the Economy will be next year at this time? Let me know, and I’ll post selections of the answers I receive.

The new unemployment numbers took a lot of people, including me, by surprise: Unemployment rose from 9.8% in September to 10.2% in October. It isn’t the increase that surprised me—all the economists have been saying the unemployment rate is going to continue its climb, even though the recession itself is likely over. Rather, it was the size of the increase. I had just finished my October State of the Economy the previous week, which included unemployment projections of 10% by December and a peak of 10.2% in February.

So I wonder if it’s peaking early, or if it’s going to peak a lot higher than has been forecast. Some of the more pessimistic economists (okay, one economist in this Wall Street Journal survey) are predicting 11% in June. Ten percent don’t think the unemployment rate will peak until the second half of 2010. Or later.

Unemployment has increased for virtually all demographic groups, but not all demographic groups are equally affected. Wondering who’s getting hit the hardest? Young people for sure. People of color more than whites. Men more than women. Want to know where you fit in the mix? Check out this interactive graphic developed by the New York Times—you can get unemployment rates by race, sex, age, and educational level—or any variation thereof. (I spent an embarrassing amount of time playing with the numbers: It’s grim and fascinating at the same time.)

There are also broader measures of unemployment (I’ve talked about this before). So if you include discouraged workers the unemployment rate goes up to 10.7%. And if you add in marginally attached and involuntary part-time workers, it goes up to 17.5%. That’s getting uncomfortably close to 1 in 5 workers.

Hunker down. The bumpy ride isn’t over yet….

Some economists are heralding the end of the recession, but I’m not taking out my party hat yet. 

Nationally, the unemployment rate stands at 9.4%, but if you add in discouraged workers and involuntary part-time workers, it’s 16.3%—a slight improvement from the 16.5% we saw in June, but still abysmal. And economists are still predicting high unemployment—averaging about 9.8%—throughout 2010.

While the Minnesota unemployment rate dropped to 8.1% in July, we’ve got our own bad news to deal with. The recent job vacancy survey conducted by DEED found that there are now 7.7 unemployed workers for each job vacancy in the state. (This is up from 5.6 unemployed workers per job vacancy six months ago, and if you go back far enough—see left side of graphic below—you can see that in the early part of this decade there were actually more jobs than there were job seekers!)

But the story gets worse (I think I will have to put something fun and silly at the end of this post, to balance out all this bleakness): Six months ago, the median wage (half pay more, half pay less) for open jobs was $11/hour. That has fallen to $10/hour. Yikes! That means that half the people that get jobs in Minnesota will make less than $21,000 a year if they work full time. But the chances are good that they won’t, because 41% of the jobs available are part time.

On a Lighter Note

Did you know there is a part of the brain called Area 37? I had no idea. I learned this in Proust and the Squid: The Story and Science of the Reading Brain. (Read my other entry about Proust and the Squid.)

It’s for object recognition.

Area 37. Doesn’t that sound like something you’d find in The X Files or House of Leaves?

Kind of creepy.

June. Is there a better time to be alive in Minnesota? It’s a great time for just about anything, including starting a blog.

What I hope to do with this blog:

• Present interesting information that is current and relevant to our region (the Greater Twin Cities United Way region includes the usual seven-county metro area plus Chisago and Isanti counties).
• Dispel some myths-mostly around people and statistics.
• Help you learn about Greater Twin Cities United Way-what we do and why.
• Have fun!

Mostly I’ll deal with serious issues, but everyone needs a mental health break now and then, so I’ll include the occasional leavening under the guise of “Work-Life Balance.”

Data note: I’m sure most of you saw that the new national unemployment stats are out-the unemployment rate is now 9.4%, up from 8.9% in April. But that’s only the official unemployment rate. If you don’t read past the first few paragraphs, you miss the finer detail:

The unemployment rate counts only individuals who are actively looking for work-that’s about 14.5 million people. If you add in the 9.1 million people who are working part-time because their hours have been reduced or that’s all they can get (usually referred to as involuntary part-time workers), and the 2.2 million discouraged workers (who want to work and are available for work but aren’t counted as unemployed because they haven’t actively looked for work in the last four weeks), the unemployment rate stands at 16.4%. This is sometimes referred to as the real unemployment rate.

I found this really cool graphic at the Wall Street Journal, that puts our current recession and unemployment figures in historical context. Note that in the first half of 1983, when unemployment rates were above 10%, the recession was officially over. What I glean from this is that even after the recession officially ends, the unemployment rate will likely continue to stay high for at least six months.

I can’t end on such a bleak note. So….

Final Comment: Last night I was reading Jim Gilbert’s Minnesota Nature Notes for the first week of June, and I learned that turtles are out and away from their water in this first part of the month, seeking higher nesting grounds. Keep an eye out-they cross a lot of roads.