One of the functions of the Research & Planning Department is to verify and source various facts and data points.

Photo by idrewuk

One “fact” that we get asked to source on a regular basis is that third grade reading scores are used in the state of (Virginia, California, Indiana—fill in the blank) to project how many prison beds will be needed in the future. What a compelling statement! It just begs to be repeated.

Unfortunately (or perhaps fortunately), it isn’t true.

It has an impressive pedigree:  Colin Powell has cited it, as has Hillary Clinton. The Washington Post and New York Times have both published opinion columns that reference it. A quick Google search of “third grade reading” and “prison beds” came up with 36,400 matches (and fewer than 4,000 matches if you add the word “bogus”).

We have contacted officials in both California and Virginia (the two most frequently cited states) and have come up empty. We have searched the web and scoured research articles. Plenty of references to the alleged fact, but not a single one of the purported sources pans out.

So it was with no small amount of relief that not too very long ago I ran across this article in the Washington Post debunking the claim.

If the Washington Post with its myriad resources, national and international, couldn’t track down a reliable source, I’m inclined to believe it doesn’t exist. If anyone out there knows otherwise, please let me (and the Washington Post) know.